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This paper studies how managers plan under uncertainty. In a new survey panel on German manufacturing firms, we show that uncertainty reflects change: Planning incorporates higher subjective uncertainty about future sales growth when the firm has just experienced unusual growth, and more so if...
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In this paper, we empirically assess the causal links between trade and individual income risk and study the role that … 2012. Our estimates suggest substantial heterogeneity in labor income risk across workers in different entry cohorts and …-industry changes in imports and exports are causally related to income risk: Imports increase risk and exports decrease risk, and they …
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. In the process we integrate a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) restriction on overall plan costs into the pension manager …
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In 1997 Chancellor Kohl proposed a major pension reform and pushed the law through Parliament explaining that the German PAYG system had become unsustainable. One limitation of the new law -- one that is crucial for our identification strategy -- is that it left the generous pension entitlements...
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