The standard vector error correction (VEC) model assumes the iid normal distribution of disturbance term in the model. This paper extends this assumption to include GARCH process. We call this model as VEC-GARCH model. However as the number of parameters in a VEC-GARCH model is large, the...

The fact that the literature tends to find biases in national fiscal projections has led to a growing claim in the academic and policy arenas for the need to introduce independent forecasts in the fiscal domain, prepared by independent agencies, like the European Commission (EC) in the case...

The main objective of our study is to model and forecast volatility as measured by the VIX index, with the aim of producing information to banks and also to macroeconomists. We begin with Arma/Arima models, augmented with Garch errors and exogenous regressors : some macroeconomic leading...

The connectedness of international equity markets can be measured building on the well-established forecast error variance decomposition framework. This approach permits the assessment of the propagation of shocks (spillovers) across equity markets on a day-to-day basis. The focus of our...