Under current law, the deficit will decrease to $492 billion in 2014, CBO projects, as revenues continue rebounding from their low in the recession. But beginning in 2016, deficits will rise again—largely because of an aging population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal...

The President's proposals would, relative to CBO's current-law baseline, boost deficits from 2014 through 2016 but reduce them from 2017 through 2024, CBO and JCT estimate. Deficits would total $6.6 trillion between 2015 and 2024, $1.0 trillion less than the cumulative deficit in CBO's baseline....

The President’s proposed policies would increase U.S. output (compared with what it would be under current law), mostly by changing immigration laws. Incorporating such economic effects, CBO estimates that those policies would reduce deficits relative to those under current law by a total of...

The recession from 2007 to 2009 sparked wide interest in the economic effects of fiscal policy. That interest is reflected in an ongoing debate over the size of the fiscal multiplier. This working paper addresses three questions: What models do economists use to estimate that multiplier? Why do...

Under budgetary paths, but not particular policies, specified in the 2016 budget resolution conference report, total debt would be smaller than in CBO’s baseline. Economic output would be lower in the next few years but higher thereafter.

CBO has analyzed the effects on the economy stemming from a set of paths for federal revenues and noninterest spending specified by Chairman Mike Enzi of the Senate Budget Committee and how those macroeconomic effects in turn would affect the federal budget.

Under the President’s proposed budget for 2016, CBO estimates, the federal budget deficit would decline from $486 billion in 2015 to $384 billion in 2016, but then climb in subsequent years, reaching $801 billion in 2025. Federal debt held by the public would remain in the vicinity of 72...

CBO has analyzed the effects on the economy stemming from a set of paths for federal revenues and noninterest spending specified by Chairman Tom Price of the House Budget Committee and how those macroeconomic effects in turn would affect the federal budget.

Although federal deficits have shrunk markedly in recent years, growing spending for Social Security and major health care programs, along with increasing interest costs, would cause them to rise steadily over the long term. The larger deficits would cause federal debt to grow faster than the...