Aggregated times series variables can be forecasted in different ways. For example, they may be forecasted on the basis of the aggregate series or forecasts of disaggregated variables may be obtained first and then these forecasts may be aggregated. A number of forecasts are presented and...

This paper considers the costs and benefits of Sweden joining the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU).  We pay particular attention to the costs of abandoning the krona in terms of a loss of monetary policy independence.  For this purpose, we apply a cointegrated VAR framework to...

Band spectral regression with deterministic and stochastic trends is considered. It is shown that conventional trend removal by regression in the time domain prior to band spectral regression leads to biased and inconsistent estimates of the parameters in a model with frequency dependent...

Our subject is the notion of automated discovery in econometrics. Advances in computer power, electronic communication, and data collection processes have all changed the way econometrics is conducted. These advances have helped to elevate the status of empirical research within the economics...

Linear cointegration is known to have the important property of invariance under temporal translation. The same property is shown not to apply for nonlinear cointegration. The requisite limit theory involves sample covariances of integrable transformations of non-stationary sequences and time...

This paper proposes nonparametric statistical procedures for analyzing discrete choice models of affective decision making. We make two contributions to the literature on behavioral economics. Namely, we propose a procedure for eliciting the existence of a Nash equilibrium in an intrapersonal,...

Building models for high dimensional portfolios is important in risk management and asset allocation.  Here we propose a novel and fast way of estimating models of time-varying covariances that overcome an undiagnosed incidental parameter problem which has troubled existing methods when applied...

We evaluate the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of direct multi-step estimation (DMS) for forecasting at several horizons. For forecast accuracy gains from DMS in finite samples, mis-specification and non-stationarity of the DGP are necessary, but when a model is well-specified,...