Showing 1 - 10 of 16
Efficient markets models assert that the price of each asset is equal to the optimal forecast of its ex-post or fundamental value. These models do not imply, however, that the covariance between two asset prices is given by the covariance between the ex-post values they respectively forecast:...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005463944
private information influences aggregate volatility. The maximal aggregate volatility is attained in a noise free information …, as in Lucas [14]. For any given variance of aggregate shocks, the upper bound on aggregate volatility is linearly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010938545
This paper explores the characteristics associated with the formation of bubbles that occurred in the Hong Kong stock market in 1997 and 2007, as well as the 2000 dot-com bubble of Nasdaq. It examines the profitability of Technical Analysis (TA) strategies generating buy and sell signals with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011272961
A recent literature shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro …-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility, that is, it assumes an inverse relationship between first and second … volatility. We show that, in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs, agents have the incentive to invest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009251219
This paper analyzes the relationship between the volatility of corporate bond returns and standard financial and … volatility that distinguishes the short-term dynamics from the long-run component of volatility. Both the in-sample and out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010812479
the total volatility function in a continuous-time jump diffusion model. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005093922
liquidity shock, separating information maximum likelihood estimation of the integrated volatility and covariance with micro … illustrations, EVT and tail-risk modelling, with evidence from market indices and volatility series, the economics of data using … simple model free volatility in a high frequency world, arbitrage-free implied volatility surfaces for options on single …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010778692
correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns, pricing exotic options using the Wang transform …, the rise and fall of S&P500 variance futures, predicting volatility using Markov switching multifractal model: evidence …, forecasting volatility via stock return, range, trading volume and spillover effects: the case of Brazil, estimating and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010778693
This paper analyzes two indexes in order to capture the volatility inherent in El Niños Southern Oscillations (ENSO … suitable for modelling ENSO volatility accurately, and that 1998 is a turning point, which indicates that the ENSO strength has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010778703
mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models … price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010778726