We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models involving conditional volatility, conditional higher...

This paper offers a general approach to time series modeling that attempts to reconcile classical and methods. The central idea put forward to achieve reconciliation is that the Bayesian approach relies implicitly a frame of reference for the data generating mechanism that is quite different...

The results in this paper show that various college football ranking systems have useful independent information for predicting the outcomes of games. Optimal weights for the systems are estimated, and the use of these weights produces a predictive system that is more accurate than any of the...

We propose a nonparametric test of conditional independence based on the empirical distribution function. The asymptotic null distribution is a mixture of chi-squares. A bootstrap procedure is proposed for calculating the critical values. Our test has power against alternatives at distance...

This paper considers a generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation problem in which one has a vector of moment conditions, some of which are correct and some incorrect. The paper introduces several procedures for consistently selecting the correct moment conditions. The procedures also can...

We propose a new method of testing stochastic dominance that improves on existing tests based on the standard bootstrap or subsampling. The method admits prospects involving infinite as well as finite dimensional unknown parameters, so that the variables are allowed to be residuals from...

Suppose that the econometrician is interested in comparing two misspecified moment restriction models, where the comparison is performed in terms of some chosen measure of fit. This paper is concerned with describing an optimal test of the Vuong (1989) and Rivers and Vuong (2002) type null...

This paper develops a complete limit theory for Wald tests of Granger causality in levels vector autoregression (VAR's) and Johansen-type error correction models (ECM's) allowing for the presence of stochastic trends and cointegration. Earlier work by Sims, Stock and Watson (1990) on trivariate...

We propose a nonparametric empirical distribution function based test of an hypothesis of conditional independence between variables of interest. This hypothesis is of interest both for model specification purposes, parametric and semiparametric, and for non-model based testing of economic...

The quantal response equilibrium (QRE) notion of McKelvey and Palfrey (1995) has recently attracted considerable attention, due largely to its widely documented ability to rationalize observed behavior in games played by experimental subjects. We show that this ability to fit the data, as...