Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have caused atmospheric concentrations with no precedents in the last half a million years, inducing serious uncertainties about future climates and their effects on human welfare. Recent climate science supports the view that the climate...

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is this consistent with nondecreasing human welfare? Our welfare index, called quality of life (QuoL), emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. We construct and calibrate a multigenerational model with...

Mankind must cooperate to reduce GHG emissions to prevent a catastrophic rise in global temperature. How can the necessary costs of reducing GHG emissions be allocated across regions of the world, within the next few generations, and simultaneously address growth expectations and economic...

Trends are ubiquitous in economic discourse, play a role in much economic theory, and have been intensively studied in econometrics over the last three decades. Yet the empirical economist, forecaster, and policy maker have little guidance from theory about the source and nature of trend...

We propose a new adequacy test and a graphical evaluation tool for nonlinear dynamic models. The proposed techniques can be applied in any setup where parametric conditional distribution of the data is specified, in particular to models involving conditional volatility, conditional higher...

A prominent use of local to unity limit theory in applied work is the construction of confidence intervals for autogressive roots through inversion of the ADF t statistic associated with a unit root test, as suggested in Stock (1991). Such confidence intervals are valid when the true model has...

A unifying framework for inference is developed in predictive regressions where the predictor has unknown integration properties and may be stationary or nonstationary. Two easily implemented nonparametric F-tests are proposed. The test statistics are related to those of Kasparis and Phillips...

It is well known that unit root limit distributions are sensitive to initial conditions in the distant past. If the distant past initialization is extended to the infinite past, the initial condition dominates the limit theory producing a faster rate of convergence, a limiting Cauchy...

In time series regression with nonparametrically autocorrelated errors, it is now standard empirical practice to construct confidence intervals for regression coefficients on the basis of nonparametrically studentized t-statistics. The standard error used in the studentization is typically...

Nonlinearities in the drift and diffusion coefficients influence temporal dependence in scalar diffusion models. We study this link using two notions of temporal dependence: beta-mixing and rho-mixing. We show that beta-mixing and rho-mixing with exponential decay are essentially equivalent...