Young people with private health insurance sometimes transition to the public health insurance safety net after they get sick, but popular sources of cross-sectional data obscure how frequently these transitions occur. We use longitudinal data on almost all hospital visits in New York from 1995...

We develop a model of selection that incorporates a key element of recent health reforms: an individual mandate. We identify a set of key parameters for welfare analysis, allowing us to model the welfare impact of the actual policy as well as to estimate the socially optimal penalty level. Using...

We use administrative data from the IRS to examine the long-term impact of childhood Medicaid expansions. We use eligibility variation by cohort and state that we can relate to outcomes graphically. We find that children with greater Medicaid eligibility paid more in cumulative taxes by age 28....

We consider inference on optimal treatment assignments. Our methods allow for inference on the treatment assignment rule that would be optimal given knowledge of the population treatment effect in a general setting. The procedure uses multiple hypothesis testing methods to determine a subset of...

We establish the validity of an Edgeworth expansion to the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter of a stationary, Gaussian, strongly dependent process. The result covers ARFIMA type models, including fractional Gaussian noise. The method of proof consists of three...

We provide in this paper asymptotic theory for the multivariate GARCH (p,q) process. Strong consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is established by appealing to conditions given in Jeantheau [19] in conjunction with a result given by Boussama [9] concerning the existence of...

This paper is concerned with robust estimation under moment restrictions. A moment restriction model is semiparametric and distribution-free, therefore it imposes mild assumptions. Yet it is reasonable to expect that the probability law of observations may have some deviations from the ideal...

This paper considers regression models for cross-section data that exhibit cross-section dependence due to common shocks, such as macroeconomic shocks. The paper analyzes the properties of least squares (LS) and instrumental variables (IV) estimators in this context. The results of the paper...

We discuss some challenges presented by trending data in time series econometrics. To the empirical economist there is little guidance from theory about the source of trend behavior and even less guidance about practical formulations. Moreover, recent proximity theorems reveal that trends are...

A method is proposed in this paper for predicting Electoral College victory probabilities from state probability data. A "ranking" assumption about dependencies across states is made that greatly simplifies the analysis. The method issued to analyze state probability data from the Intrade...