Young people with private health insurance sometimes transition to the public health insurance safety net after they get sick, but popular sources of cross-sectional data obscure how frequently these transitions occur. We use longitudinal data on almost all hospital visits in New York from 1995...

We develop a model of selection that incorporates a key element of recent health reforms: an individual mandate. We identify a set of key parameters for welfare analysis, allowing us to model the welfare impact of the actual policy as well as to estimate the socially optimal penalty level. Using...

We use administrative data from the IRS to examine the long-term impact of childhood Medicaid expansions. We use eligibility variation by cohort and state that we can relate to outcomes graphically. We find that children with greater Medicaid eligibility paid more in cumulative taxes by age 28....

This paper provides an interpretation of the uncertainty that exists at the beginning of the day of an election as to who will win. It is based on the theory that there are a number of possible conditions of nature that can exist on election day, of which one is drawn. Political betting markets...

An influential paper by Kleibergen (2005) introduces Lagrange multiplier (LM) and conditional likelihood ratio-like (CLR) tests for nonlinear moment condition models. These procedures aim to have good size performance even when the parameters are unidentified or poorly identified. However, the...

This paper introduces two new identification- and singularity-robust conditional quasi-likelihood ratio (SR-CQLR) tests and a new identification- and singularity-robust Anderson and Rubin (1949) (SR-AR) test for linear and nonlinear moment condition models. The paper shows that the tests have...

This paper derives asymptotic power functions for Cramer-von Mises (CvM) style tests for conditional moment inequality models in the set identified case. Combined with power results for Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests, these results can be used to choose the optimal test statistic, weighting...

We consider inference on optimal treatment assignments. Our methods allow for inference on the treatment assignment rule that would be optimal given knowledge of the population treatment effect in a general setting. The procedure uses multiple hypothesis testing methods to determine a subset of...

We start by discussing some general weaknesses and limitations of the econometric approach. A template from sociology is used to formulate six laws that characterize mainstream activities of econometrics and the scientific limits of those activities, we discuss some proximity theorems that...

Our subject is the notion of automated discovery in econometrics. Advances in computer power, electronic communication, and data collection processes have all changed the way econometrics is conducted. These advances have helped to elevate the status of empirical research within the economics...