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A pilot effort was undertaken to experiment with a method of collecting parallel time series data for expectations and … through time in the responses and dramatic differences across countries in expectations (even expectations for the same …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005463992
effects. In a controlled laboratory experiment we show that exogenous variation of second-order expectations (promisors …' expectations about promisees' expectations that the promise will be kept) leads to a significant change in promisor behavior. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011252589
models is tested in this paper. Economic agents are assumed to use a vector of variables Z_{t} in forming their expectations … for periods t+1 and beyond. These expectations may or may not be rational in the Muth sense. The results provide some …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005249280
expectations of the aggregate price level and one in which expectations are rational. Under the first hypothesis the lag length is … parameters. The results strongly support the hypothesis that aggregate price expectations affect individual pricing decisions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762653
The use of price-earnings ratios and dividend-price ratios as forecasting variables for the stock market is examined using aggregate annual US data 1871 to 2000 and aggregate quarterly data for twelve countries since 1970. Various simple efficient-markets models of financial markets imply that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762739
The OLG model of Allais and Samuelson retains the methodological assumptions of agent optimization and market clearing from the Arrow-Debreu model, yet its equilibrium set has different properties: Pareto inefficiency, indeterminacy, positive valuation of money, and a golden rule equilibrium in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005010139
The equilibrium prices in asset markets, as stated by Keynes (1930): "...will be fixed at the point at which the sales of the bears and the purchases of the bulls are balanced." We propose a descriptive theory of finance explicating Keynes' claim that the prices of assets today equilibrate the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010895648
In this paper we present a series of models, all within the context of a simple two-good economy, which bring out the distinctions between the different types of money and financial institutions. The models emphasize the physical properties of the economic goods, moneys, and trading systems. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762717
Fiat money(1) is a creation of both the state and society. Its value is supported by expectations which are conditioned … expectations and bound behavior.(2) Paper money emerges as a virtual commodity. The dynamics of the economy permits it to serve as … circulation expectations will degenerate and the economy will break down. In order to appreciate the intrinsic dynamics of a high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005762736
The El Farol Bar problem with coordination is reconsidered in terms and extended with consideration of further context.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531397