This paper offers a new identification strategy for disentangling structural state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity in preferences. Our strategy exploits market environments where there is a choice-consumption mismatch. We first demonstrate the effectiveness of our identification...

The theory of choice proposed in "Knightian Decision Theory, Part I" is here applied to intertemporal problems. An analogue of dynamic programming called maxmin programming is developed. Also, it is shown that detailed contingent planning may not be needed in order to achieve maximality, a...

Stimulated by Frank Knight's work, "Risk, Uncertainty and Profit," I present a theory of innovation based on what I term Knightian decision theory. This theory includes a concept of uncertainty aversion, a behavioral property that makes people reluctant to undertake new unevaluatable risks. This...

Decision theory and game theory are extended to allow for information processing errors. This extended theory is then used to reexamine market speculation and consensus, both when all actions (opinions) are common knowledge and when they may not be. Five axioms of information processing are...

A theory of choice under uncertainty is proposed which removes the completeness assumption from the Anscombe-Aumann formulation of Savage's theory and introduces an inertia assumption. The inertia assumption is that there is such a thing as the status quo and an alternative is accepted only if...