We examine convenience yields in the EU-wide CO2 emissions trading scheme (EU-ETS) during the first Kyoto commitment period (2008-2012). We find that the market has changed from initial backwardation to contango with significantly negative convenience yields in futures contracts. We further...

With nominal interest rates near the zero lower bound (ZLB) in many major economies, it has become untenable to apply Gaussian affine term structure models (GATSMs) while ignoring their inherent theoretical deficiency of non-zero probabilities of negative interest rates. In this article I...

I propose a simple framework that quantifies the stance of monetary policy as a “shadow short rate” when the term structure is near the zero lower bound. I demonstrate my framework with a one-factor model applied to Japanese data, including an intuitive economic interpretation of the...

Due to the well known fact that market returns are not normally distributed, we use generalized hyperbolic distributions for pricing options in a randomized discrete-time setup. The obtained formulas can be used for pricing options on stock indexes, currencies and futures contracts. We test them...

This work discusses potential pitfalls of applying linear regression models to explaining the relationship between spot and futures prices in electricity markets. We briefly introduce the theory for the analysis of the spot-futures price relationship and highlight selected issues of multiple...

When nominal interest rates are near their zero lower bound (ZLB), as in many developed economies at the time of writing, it is theoretically untenable to apply the popular class of Gaussian affine term structure models (GATSMs) given their inherent material probabilities of negative interest...

The Black framework offers a theoretically appealing way to model the term structure and gauge the stance of monetary policy when the zero lower bound of interest rates becomes constraining, but it is time consuming to apply using standard numerical methods. I outline a faster Monte Carlo...

With nominal interest rates currently at or near their zero lower bound (ZLB) in many major economies, it has become untenable to apply Gaussian affine term structure models (GATSMs) while ignoring their inherent non-zero probabilities of negative interest rates. In this article I modify GATSMs...

This paper proposes a simple method to estimate contingent liabilities that arise from (implicit and explicit) government guarantees to the banking sector. This method allows us to construct cross-country estimates on potential costs of bank failures. Furthermore, we empirically test whether the...

In this paper we concentrate on power producers’ strategies on the electricity market with contracts and Asian-type call options for power delivery. We propose stochastic asymmetric supply function equilibrium and Cournot models that are based on the assumption of the stochastic behavior of...