We estimate changes in the volatility of firm-level sales, earnings and employment growth of US firms. Our method differs from existing measures for firm-level sales and employment volatility in that it not only captures longer-run changes in volatility, but also measures cyclical changes in...

This paper presents evidence on why inflation pass-through from oil shocks in the 21st century relative to the 1970s has dampened. First, results suggest global business cycle demand driven oil shocks are not inflationary. Second, there has been a reduction in inflation pass-through from oil...

Analysis of the Michigan Survey data confirms U.S. inflation expectations are not perfectly anchored in the event of an oil price shock. Two key results emerge through counterfactual analysis. First, better anchoring of inflation expectations can ameliorate the mild inflation impact which occurs...

This paper attempts to estimate a model of inflation in Tajikistan using the Johanson cointegration approach and single equation error correction model. It also develops a methodology for creating monthly real output series. The paper investigates both the short run dynamic behaviour of...

Does excluding food and energy prices from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) produce a measure that captures permanent price changes? To examine this question we decompose CPI inflation and "core" inflation into their permanent and transitory components using a correlated unobserved components...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and the average inflation predictions of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on a sample running from 1968Q4 to 2014Q2. The joint data generating process (DGP) of these data consists of the unobserved components (UC) model of Stock...

This paper proposes quantifying the evolution of the U.S. output-inflation tradeoff using a Time-Varying Parameter Structural VAR. This methodology circumvents issues with existing methods which tend to be either reduced form in nature or rely on more ad hoc assumptions regarding sample split...

It is well-known that there is a large degree of uncertainty around Rogoff's (1996) consensus half-life of the real exchange rate. To obtain a more efficient estimator, we develop a system method that combines the Taylor rule and a standard exchange rate model to estimate half-lives. Further, we...

This paper examines the determinants of economic growth in developing countries within the standard growth regression framework, with special attention being paid to the experience of landlocked countries. The results confirm the findings of previous studies that landlockedness hampers economic...

India's National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) has been hailed as one of the country's most creative social initiatives. Since the program was begun only recently (in 2004-05) there is a need to assess its impact on households not just in one year but over time. To the best of our...