The rise in China's sex ratio at birth during the last two decades has had a wide range of economic and social consequences including excessive savings as families with boys compete to match their sons with scarce girls and rising disaffection and crime amongst the unmarried male population....

The world's two population giants have undergone significant, and significantly different, demographic transitions since the 1950s. The demographic dividends associated with these transitions during the first three decades of this century are examined using a global economic model that...

Children ( under 15 years of age) growing up in poor and/or nutritionally deprived households also live with a number of layers of deprivations that stifle their freedom to actively participate in and benefit from elementary school education. Lack of health care, limited access to quality...

Until very recently and despite human capital’s pre-eminent and empirically established contribution to economic growth, Indian policymakers planning for economic development concentrated largely on issues of capital, labour and, to a lesser extent, technology. This paper argues that India’s...

The timing of China‘s and India‘s demographic transitions and the implications of alternative fertility scenarios are here explored using a global economic model incorporating full demographic behavior and measures of dependency that include the working aged and those of working age who do...

We carry out a meta-analysis of the very large literature on Granger causality tests between energy use and economic output to determine if there is a genuine effect in this literature or whether the large number of apparently significant results is due to publication and misspecification bias....

Recent literature has focuses on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting...

We consider an adaptive importance sampling approach to estimating the marginal likelihood, a quantity that is fundamental in Bayesian model comparison and Bayesian model averaging. This approach is motivated by the difficulty of obtaining an accurate estimate through existing algorithms that...

The empirical support for a DSGE type of real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure that makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is extended to...

We survey Bayesian methods for estimating dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models in this article. We focus on New Keynesian (NK)DSGE models because of the interest shown in this class of models by economists in academic and policy-making institutions. This interest stems from the...