The equity premium in the UK appears to have risen significantly since the start of the financial crisis and the associated extended recession. This paper examines the relationship between the business cycle and equity market returns to see how robust this association is. Several classifications...

We investigate the sources of macroeconomic (output and inflation) variability in selected European countries within and outside the European Monetary Union: Germany, Italy, Austria, the UK and Poland. Using quarterly data from 1985:1 to 2005:4, we estimate a Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR)...

This paper studies the implications of internal consumption habit for new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NKDSGE) models. Bayesian Monte Carlo methods are employed to evaluate NKDSGE model fit. Simulation experiments show that consumption habit often improves the ability of...

This paper provides an overview of the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the Indian economy. It identifies the channels through which the GFC has impacted the Indian economy and evaluates the stimulus packages that have been put in place by the government of India. Finally, the...

This paper models Chinese inflation using an output gap Phillips curve. Inflation modelling for the world's sixth largest economy is a still under-researched topic. We estimate a partially forward-looking Phillips curve as well as traditional backward-looking Phillips curves. Using quarterly...

This paper argues that the theory of wage and price setting in macroeconomics should be broadened to include insights from behavioural economics, in particular prospect theory and loss aversion. The paper shows how broader microeconomic foundations can explain the main features of a realistic...

This lecture deals not with the causes of the world financial crisis nor how to forecast or avoid one in the future, nor how to revive the financial sector, but rather with the crucial emergency "ambulance" policy of fiscal stimulus. What are the main effects of stimuli policies, and, in...

The paper presents an agent based model to study the possible effects of different fiscal and monetary policies in the context of debt deflation. We introduce a modified Taylor rule which includes the financial position of firms as a target. Monte Carlo simulations show that an excessive...

An important requirement, prior to countries’ adopting a common currency or maintaining an independent monetary policy, is establishing the extent to which they share a common economic cycle and how susceptible they are to region-specific shocks. For example, Kouparitsas (2001) has examined...