In common with other archipelagic countries, Indonesia is vulnerable to such impacts of climate change as prolonged droughts, increased frequency in extreme weather events, and heavy rainfall resulting in floods. These threats, coupled with the fact that Indonesia has been declared one of the...

We investigate the dynamic effects of five different fiscal shocks on the US economy using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that uses Blanchard-Quah type restrictions. We find that an increase in indirect taxes or in corporate taxes has a contractionary effect on the economy,...

We study the joint determination of fertility subsidies and Social Security taxes in an overlapping generations model where agents are heterogeneous in endowments. In equilibria where Social Security is valued, old and poor young agents form a coalition that sustains Social Security. When voting...

Though the literature on federalism explains the economic gains from decentralised decision making and related issues in India, there are very few empirical studies examining the causal relationship between decentralisation and development outcomes. Much of the demonstrated gains are in the...

This paper presents a brief overview of the extant fiscal situation in South Asian countries. In particular, I emphasize low tax/GDP ratios and inelastic expenditure/GDP ratios which then lead to structurally entrenched fiscal deficits. The paper also reports on the sustainability of fiscal and...

Recent literature has focuses on realized volatility models to predict financial risk. This paper studies the benefit of explicitly modeling jumps in this class of models for value at risk (VaR) prediction. Several popular realized volatility models are compared in terms of their VaR forecasting...

Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...

Central to the conduct of monetary policy are inflation forecasts. Inflation forecast are not unique. Central banks and professional organizations generate inflation forecasts while households are surveyed about their inflation outlook. This paper estimates inflation forecast disagreement for...

This paper places the data revision model of Jacobs and van Norden (2011) within a class of trend-cycle decompositions relating directly to the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. In both these approaches identifying restrictions on the covariance matrix under simple and realistic conditions may...

International pressure to revalue China's currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis under which economic growth, stemming from improvements in traded sector...