We present results from an extensive study on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging...

This paper develops concordance indices for studying the simultaneous occurrence of financial crises. The indices are designed to cope with these typically low incidence events. This leads us to confine attention to non-tranquil periods to develop a bivariate index and its multivariate analog...

International pressure to revalue China's currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis under which economic growth, stemming from improvements in traded sector...

This paper provides a review of the literature on competitiveness and leakage concerns associated with differentiated climate abatement commitments among countries. The literature reviewed is not exhausted, but it is sufficient to provide a balanced view of both academics and policy circles....

This paper has two main objectives. First, it computes capital flight (CF) through trade misinvoicing from India using data from UNCOMTRADE, MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity and IMF E-library. India's trade with 17 countries over the period 1988-2012 is considered. We find that CF has...

Product and financial market integration determine the global implications of China’s recent growth surge and its on-going transition from export led growth. These alter China’s structural imbalance (its excess product supply and excess saving), which in turn shifts the...

We show the importance of endogenous oil prices and production in the real business cycle framework. Endogenising these variables improves the model’s predictions of business cycle statistics, oil related and non-oil related, relative to a situation where either is exogenous. This result is...

Opinion over the global implications of China's rise is divided between critics, who see it as having developed at the expense of both investment and employment in the US, Europe and Japan and proponents who emphasise improvements in the terms of trade and reductions to the cost of financing...

It is commonly understood that macroeconomic shocks influence commodity prices and that one channel for this is the link between interest rates, expected future asset returns and stockholding. In this paper the link is extended to the petroleum market with the recognition that recorded stocks of...

This paper examines Australia's terms of trade boom since 2003 with a particular interest in quantifying the links between the terms of trade and sectoral performance and identifying an associated 'secondary services boom'. Comparative static general equilibrium modelling and empirical analysis...