Traditional studies of the Dutch disease do not typically account for productivity spillovers between the booming energy sector and non-oil sectors. This study identifies and quantifies these spillovers using a Bayesian Dynamic Factor Model (BDFM). The model allows for resource movements and...

This paper explores the role of demand from emerging and developed economies as drivers of the real price of oil. Using a method that allows us to identify and compare demand from different groups of countries across the world, we find that demand from emerging economies (most notably from Asian...

We examine the effect of inflation variability and economic growth using annual historical data on both developing and developed countries. The data cover 182 developing countries and 31 developed countries for the period 1961-2009. Proxying inflation variability by the five-year coefficient of...

We examine the effect of inflation variability and economic growth using annual historical data on both developing and developed countries. The data cover 182 developing countries and 31 developed countries for the period 1961-2009. Proxying inflation variability by the five-year coefficient of...

This paper expounds the concept of Dutch Disease as it applies currently to Australia, noting the various gains and losses resulting from the Australian mining boom. "Dutch Disease" refers to the adverse effects through real exchange rate appreciation that such a boom can have on various export...

Australia’s comparatively small and open economy is subject to boom-bust shocks that centre on its exporting mining and agricultural industries which, in average years, are minor contributors to its GDP. The associated real exchange rate effects, however, have important implications for...

This paper examines Australia's terms of trade boom since 2003 with a particular interest in quantifying the links between the terms of trade and sectoral performance and identifying an associated 'secondary services boom'. Comparative static general equilibrium modelling and empirical analysis...

We evaluate the performance of an open economy DSGE-VAR model for New Zealand along both forecasting and policy dimensions. We show that forecasts froma DSGE-VAR and a "vanilla" DSGE model are competitive with, and in some dimensions superrior to, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's official...

We estimate the underlying macroeconomic policy objectives of three of the earliest explicit inflation targeters - Australia, Canada and New Zealand - within the context of a small open economy DSGE model. We assume central banks set policy optimally, such that we can reverse engineer policy...

A puzzle from the Great Recession is an apparent mismatch between a fall in the persistence of European inflation rates, and the increased variability of expert forecasts of inflation. We explain this puzzle and show how country specific beliefs about inflation are still quite close to the...