time-varying models of the relationship be- tween inflation and the output gap. The forecast densities for inflation …

disaggregate ensemble approach to forecast US Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation from 1997Q2 to 2008Q1. Our ensemble …

-deployed vector autoregressions in US inflation and various measures of the output gap. Our approach constructs ensemble nowcast … densities using a linear opinion pool. This yields well-calibrated nowcasts for US inflation in real time from 1991q2 to 2010q1 …

price changes? To examine this question we decompose CPI inflation and "core" inflation into their permanent and transitory … to offsetting transitory shocks correlated with the permanent shocks. The stationarity of inflation may be time …-varying, so we examine the performance of the core measure of inflation for periods during which it appears that inflation is I(1 …

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and the average inflation predictions of the Survey of … consists of the unobserved components (UC) model of Stock and Watson (2007, "Why has US inflation become harder to forecast … Journal of Economics 117, 1295-1328). We introduce timevarying inflation gap persistence into the Stock and Watson (SW …

Much research studies US inflation history with a trend-cycle model with unobserved components. A key feature of this … model is that the trend may be viewed as the Fed’s evolving inflation target or long-horizon expected inflation. We provide … a new way to measure the slowly evolving trend and the cycle (or inflation gap), based on forecasts from the Survey of …

results from the RBNZ's core FPS model, to illustrate what New Zealand's inflation, output and trade outcomes might have been …