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We examine the effect of inflation variability and economic growth using annual historical data on both developing and … inflation variability by the five-year coefficient of variation of inflation, we obtain the following results: (1) For … developing countries, there is significant evidence to suggest that when the rate of inflation exceeds 10 percent inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009274828
negative term premia for 1980-2007 is decomposed into its contributing shocks, where the role of inflation and monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011186019
A puzzle from the Great Recession is an apparent mismatch between a fall in the persistence of European inflation rates …, and the increased variability of expert forecasts of inflation. We explain this puzzle and show how country specific … beliefs about inflation are still quite close to the European Central Bank target of 2% (what we call official target …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010904282
It is well-known that there is a large degree of uncertainty around Rogoff's (1996) consensus half-life of the real exchange rate. To obtain a more efficient estimator, we develop a system method that combines the Taylor rule and a standard exchange rate model to estimate half-lives. Further, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011186043
Central to the conduct of monetary policy are inflation forecasts. Inflation forecast are not unique. Central banks and … professional organizations generate inflation forecasts while households are surveyed about their inflation outlook. This paper … estimates inflation forecast disagreement for nine economies over the 1999-2009 period, five of which target inflation. I find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201607
This article examines the performance of inflation targeters during the 2007-2012 downturn compared to those without … successful policy results in higher inflation and output growth, lower unemployment, and a better fiscal position. The analysis … is conducted separately for developed and emerging countries. Inflation targeting tends to insulate developed countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010938592
real depreciation of the rupiah, and rapid growth of base money, which resulted in inflation. Thus all prices rose, but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005115699
The equity premium in the UK appears to have risen significantly since the start of the financial crisis and the associated extended recession. This paper examines the relationship between the business cycle and equity market returns to see how robust this association is. Several classifications...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011185970
Cointegration ideas as introduced by Granger (1981) are commonly embodied in empirical macroeconomic modelling through the vector error correction model (VECM). It has also become common practice in these models to treat some variables as weakly exogenous, resulting in conditional VECMs. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010607716
Cointegration ideas as introduced by Granger in 1981 are commonly embodied in empirical macroeco- nomic modelling through the vector error correction model (VECM). It has become common practice in these models to treat some variables as weakly exogenous, resulting in conditional VECMs. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010607775