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This paper estimates price and GDP/income elasticities of several energy goods in OECD countries over 1978 to 1999 by applying the one-step GMM estimation method suggested by Arellano and Bond (1991) to a panel data set. The energy demand is specified by a simple partial adjustment model. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004980822
causal analysis and forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009293729
We analyse effects of various natural gas supply scenarios in a liberalised Western European energy market in 2010. Our starting point is the uncertainties about future natural gas exports from Russia and LNG-producing countries. Our results indicate that the average natural gas producer price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004980541
High oil prices are favourable for OPEC in the short run, but may undermine its future revenues. We search for the optimal oil price level for the producer group, using a partial equilibrium model for the oil market. The model explicitly accounts for reserves, development and production in 4...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004980729
In this paper we analyse how oilrig activity in different Non-OPEC regions is affected by the crude oil price. Oilrig activity outside OPEC is an important indicator for production in the near future, and is more sensitive to the oil price than production from existing fields. We estimate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004980942
In a non-renewable resource market with imperfect competition, the resource owners’ supply is governed both by current demand and by the resource rent. New information regarding future market conditions will typically affect the resource rent and hence current supply. Bleaker prospects will...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010817208
The Arctic has a substantial share of global petroleum resources, but at higher costs than in most other petroleum provinces. Arctic states and petroleum companies are carefully considering the potential for future extraction in the Arctic. This paper studies the oil and gas supply from 6 arctic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008837730
This paper is an exercise in applied macroeconomic forecasting. We examine the forecasting power of a vector error … expenditure as suggested by the economic theory. We compare the estimated forecasting values of the endogenous variables to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005556281
-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps to substantially improve the forecast …-of-sample forecasting of the growth rates of flats' prices and rents for the next six months is done. It shows that in most cities both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010896203
even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared … spatial dependence structure into regional forecasting models, especially, when long-term forecasts are made. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963925