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A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder

Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2007

even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared … spatial dependence structure into regional forecasting models, especially, when long-term forecasts are made. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963925

Does Accounting for Spatial Effects Help Forecasting the Growth of Chinese Provinces?

Girardin, Eric; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009

shown that effect of accounting for spatial dependence is even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008527283

Business Confidence and Forecasting of Housing Prices and Rents in Large German Cities

Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2014

In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 115 indicators to predict the housing prices and rents in 71 … tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample forecasting. Its results are quite heterogeneous. No single indicator appears …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011128875

Forecasting the Prices and Rents for Flats in Large German Cities

Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Mense, Andreas - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2012

-of-sample forecasting exercise, we find that both pooling and accounting for spatial effects helps to substantially improve the forecast …-of-sample forecasting of the growth rates of flats' prices and rents for the next six months is done. It shows that in most cities both …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010896203

Speculative Price Bubbles in Urban Housing Markets in Germany

Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Michelsen, Claus; Ulbricht, Dirk - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2014

The surge in the German house prices starting in 2010 raised fears about the emergence of a speculative bubble. Given a local nature of housing markets, it is not clear to what extent the bubble, if any, is spread across different cities. In this paper, we test for speculative house price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010942857

The Effect of Economic Reforms of 1980s and of the Customs Union 1996 upon the Turkish Intra-Industry Trade

Akkoyunlu, Sule; Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2006

In this paper we analyze the impact of the economic reforms implemented in 1980s and of the Custom Union Agreement of 1996 on the intra-industry trade in Turkey. Using the panel data for 15 trading partners of Turkey and the sample period 1970-2005, we record the positive impact of both reforms...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963974

What Drives Housing Prices Down?: Evidence from an International Panel

Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Menz, Jan-Oliver; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2007

In this study, we suggest an explanation for the alarmingly low growth rates of real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries over 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is determined by real disposable per capita income, real...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068727

Google Searches as a Means of Improving the Nowcasts of Key Macroeconomic Variables

Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Podstawski, Maximilian; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009

subject to revisions. This makes them an excellent source of information for the macroeconomic forecasting. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008549317

On Selection of Components for a Diffusion Index Model: It's not the Size, It's How You Use It

Siliverstovs, Boriss; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2006

individual forecasting performance. It is shown that this targeted selection allows substantially improving the forecasting …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068735

Assessing the Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases for Now-/Forecasting GDP: Evidence for Switzerland

Siliverstovs, Boriss; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2010

-on-quarter growth rates in Switzerland. It also assesses the informational content of macroeconomic data releases for forecasting of the … for GDP forecasting although their ranking depends on the underlying transformation of monthly indicators from which the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008615361