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Filtering German Economic Conditions from a Large Dataset: The New DIW Economic Barometer
Viefers, Paul; Fichtner, Ferdinand; Junker, Simon; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2014
This paper presents a revised version of the DIW Economic Barometer, the business cycle index of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). As in earlier versions, we put forward a factor model on a monthly frequency to filter the latent state of the aggregate economy. In the new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010933108
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Forecast Errors and the Macroeconomy: A Non-Linear Relationship?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Döpke, Jörg - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2005
The paper analyses the reasons for departures from strong rationality of German business cycle forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions in Germany. We test for a non-linear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068945
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An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles
Dreger, Christian; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2011
In this paper, we construct the country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1- 2010:Q2. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental and a filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009216692
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On the Stability of the German Beveridge Curve: A Spatial Econometric Perspective
Kosfeld, Reinhold; Dreger, Christian; Eckey, Hans-Friedrich - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2006
negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the rate of vacancies, which is efficiently estimated using spatial … structural factors such as the evolution of long term unemployment, it is also affected by business cycle fluctuations. The role …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069059
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Capital Accumulation, Labour Market Institutions, and Unemployment in the Medium Run
Stockhammer, Engelbert; Klär, Erik - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2008
According to the mainstream view, labour market institutions (LMI) are the key determinants of unemployment in the … insufficient capital accumulation responsible for unemployment (Arestis et al 2007). Empirical work in this tradition has paid … capital accumulation as a macroeconomic shock. In the empirical analysis, medium-term unemployment is explained by capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963721
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Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting
Askitas, Nikos; Zimmermann, Klaus F. - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009
. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963751
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The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?
Gottschalk, Jan; Fritsche, Ulrich - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2005
New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically assume that any long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is … rate, unemployment and inflation in West Germany from the early 1960s up to 2004 using a multivariate co … data a strong negative correlation between the trend components of inflation and unemployment. We show that this finding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068985
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Business Cycles, Unemployment and Entrepreneurial Entry: First Evidence from Germany
Fritsch, Michael; Kritikos, Alexander S.; Pijnenburg, … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2013
Germany reveals that start-up activities are positively influenced by unemployment rates and that the cyclical component of … of low and high unemployment periods reveals a "low unemployment retard effect". …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010632798
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Quoted Spreads and Trade Imbalance Dynamics in the European Treasury Bond Market
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Girardi, Alessandro; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2010
Using high-frequency transaction data for the three largest European markets (France, Germany and Italy), this paper documents the existence of an asymmetric relationship between market liquidity and trading imbalances: when quoted spreads rise (fall) and liquidity falls (increases) buy (sell)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008742946
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A League of Their Own: Female Soccer, Male Legacy and Women's Empowerment
Cho, Seo-Young - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2013
This paper investigates whether male soccer tradition can predict the success of female soccer. Different from the existing literature, this paper utilizes panel data covering 175 countries during the 1991-2011 period, capturing country heterogeneity effects and time trends. An instrumental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010607548