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Time-varying Nairu and Real Interest Rates in the Euro Area

Logeay, Camille; Tober, Silke - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2003

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963663

Productivity and the Natural Rate of Unemployment

Slacalek, Jiri - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2004

width of the 95% confidence interval, performs better in an out-of-sample inflation forecasting exercise, and is more robust …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963765

Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence

Döpke, Jörg; Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2006

professional forecasters from four major European economies. Our estimates imply that inflation expectations in France, Germany and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068908

The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?

Gottschalk, Jan; Fritsche, Ulrich - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2005

New-Keynesian macroeconomic models typically assume that any long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment is … rate, unemployment and inflation in West Germany from the early 1960s up to 2004 using a multivariate co … data a strong negative correlation between the trend components of inflation and unemployment. We show that this finding …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068985

Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Girardi, Alessandro - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2011

This paper analyses the dynamic effects of fiscal imbalances in a given EMU member state on the borrowing costs of other countries in the euro area. The estimation of a multivariate, multi-country time series model (specifically a Global VAR, or GVAR) using quarterly data for the EMU period...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009325377

Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach

Bernoth, Kerstin; Erdogan, Burcu - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2010

We study the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads across 10 EMU countries between Q1/1999 and Q1/2010. We apply a semiparametric time-varying coefficient model to identify, to what extent an observed change in the yield spread is due to a shift in macroeconomic fundamentals or due to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008740506

Costs and Benefits of Euro Adoption in Bulgaria

Ganev, Georgy - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009

This study presents a cost-benefit analysis of euro adoption for the case of Bulgaria. Based on a review of existing similar studies for other East European EU member states, it outlines the basic types of potential costs and benefits of euro adoption, and applies them to the specific Bulgarian...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010783952

European Monetary Policy and the ECB Rotation Model: Voting Power of the Core versus the Periphery

Belke, Ansgar; Schnurbein, Barbara von - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2010

We analyze the ECB Governing Council's voting procedures. The literature has by now discussed numerous aspects of the rotation model but does not account for many institutional aspects of the voting procedure of the GC. Using the randomization scheme based on the multilinear extension (MLE) of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008512971

Current Account Imbalances and Structural Adjustment in the Euro Area: How to Rebalance Competitiveness

Zemanek, Holger; Belke, Ansgar; Schnabl, Gunther - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009

Low international competitiveness of a set of euro area countries, which have become evident by large current account deficits and rising risk premiums on government bonds, is one of the most challenging economic policy issues for Europe. We analyse the role of private restructuring and public...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069067

Costs and Benefits of Euro Adoption in Bulgaria

Ganev, Georgy - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010661274