This paper estimates a time-varying AR-GARCH model of inflation producing measures of inflation uncertainty for the … policy regime change associated with the start of EMU in 1999. The main findings are as follows. Steady-state inflation and … inflation uncertainty have declined steadily since the inception of EMU, whilst short-run uncertainty has increased, mainly …

changeover, Italian retailers have increased the number of price adjustments, which has translated into a higher inflation rate …

We propose a noncausal autoregressive model with time-varying parameters, and apply it to U.S. postwar inflation. The … model .fits the data well, and the results suggest that inflation persistence follows from future expectations. Persistence … curve indicate that current inflation also depends on past inflation although future expectations dominate. The implied …

We use noncausal autoregressions to examine the persistence properties of quarterly U.S. consumer price inflation from … 1970:1.2012:2. These nonlinear models capture the autocorrelation structure of the inflation series as accurately as their … conventional causal counterparts, but they allow for persistence to depend on the size and sign of shocks to inflation as well as …

width of the 95% confidence interval, performs better in an out-of-sample inflation forecasting exercise, and is more robust …

In this paper we analyse the short- and long-run relationship between employment growth, inflation and output growth in … growth, inflation and output growth with bidirectional causality between employment growth and inflation as well as output …

useful information about variables such as commodity prices which matter for aggregate demand and thus inflation. Given this …

The paper explores dynamics of inflation in Ukraine in the period of relative macroeconomic stability. The analysis of … interrelationship between inflation, money growth, wage growth, and a proxy for devaluation expectations is based on impulse responses … the most important factor driving price development, while money supply growth has negligible impact on inflation. In …