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Perceptions, Expectations, and Entrepreneurship: The Role of Extreme Events
Brück, Tilman; Llussá, Fernanda; Tavares, José - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2010
We provide, for the first time, comparative evidence of the impact of various types of extreme events - natural disasters, terrorism, and violent conflicts - on the perceptions of entrepreneurs concerning some key entrepreneurial issues - such as fear of failure in starting a business venture,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008776816
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Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda
Bozzoli, Carlos; Brück, Tilman; Muhumuza, Tony - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2010
We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals … are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and … association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008645020
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On the Role of Stock Market for Real Economic Activity
Siliverstovs, Boriss; Duong, Manh Ha - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2006
, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK. We find that even when accounting for expectations, represented by the economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963638
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International Wealth Effects
Slacalek, Jiri - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2006
This paper presents a detailed investigation of the wealth effect for 16 industrial countries using the recently proposed technique that exploits the sluggishness of consumption growth. I argue that, compared to the widespread cointegration-based methodology, the approach I apply has better...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963858
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Do Leading Indicators Help to Predict Business Cycle Turning Points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2002
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963987
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The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers: Rising Challenges for Central Banks
Belke, Ansgar; Rees, Andreas - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009
We analyze the importance of global shocks for the global economy and national policy makers. More specifically, we investigate whether monetary policy has become less effective in the wake of financial globalization. We also examine whether there is increasing uncertainty for central banks due...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008479305
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What Drives Personal Consumption?: The Role of Housing and Financial Wealth
Slacalek, Jiri - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2006
I construct a new dataset with financial and housing wealth in 16 countries and investigate the effect of wealth on consumption. The baseline estimation method based on the sluggishness of consumption growth implies that the long-run marginal propensity to consume out of total wealth averaged...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068755
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Measuring Income Risk
Burgess, Simon; Gardiner, Karen; Jenkins, Stephen P.; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2000
We provide a critique of the methods that have been used to derive measures of income risk and draw attention to the importance of demographic factors as a source of income risk. We also propose new measures of the contribution to total income risk of demographic and labour market factors....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963611
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The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations
Döpke, Jörg; Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; … - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2006
We investigate the relevance of the Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major … expectations we argue that the model adequately captures the dynamics of household inflation expectations. We estimate two …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963913
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Technology Adoption in Critical Mass Games: Theory and Experimental Evidence
Keser, Claudia; Suleymanova, Irina; Wey, Christian - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2009
We analyze the choices between two technologies A and B that both exhibit network effects. We introduce a critical mass game in which coordination on either one of the standards constitutes a Nash equilibrium outcome while coordination on standard B is assumed to be payoff-dominant. We present a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008502704