This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition...

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that...