This paper performs a thorough statistical examination of the time-series properties of the market volatility index (VIX) from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). The motivation lies on the widespread consensus that the VIX is a barometer to the overall market sentiment as to what...

In 2004, Brazil provided an interesting natural experiment concerning personal credit. A new law was enacted allowing banks to offer loans with repayment through automatic payroll or social security benefit deduction, thus removing a significant part of the moral hazard problem by eliminating...

This paper provides evidence on the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange rate in the aftermath of currency crises. It analyzes a large data set of currency crises in 80 countries in the period 1980 to 1998. The main question addressed is: can monetary policy significantly alter...

We analyze the Brazilian experience in the 1990s to access the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows in restricting financial inflows and changing their composition towards long term flows. Econometric exercises (VARs) lead us to conclude that controls on capital inflows were effective in...

More than eleven years after the end of hyperinflation in Brazil, domestic bond markets have been unable to lengthen the average maturity of both public and private bonds. This paper shows that the lengthening is theoretically and practically (we analyzed the experiences of Israel, Mexico and...

This paper evaluates monetary policy and its relationship with the exchange rate in the five Asian crisis countries. The findings are compared to previous currency crises in recent history. The paper finds that there is no evidence of overly tight monetary policy in the Asian crisis countries in...

In this paper modelling time series by single hidden layer feedforward neural network models is considered. A coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is discussed. The problems of selecting the variables and the number of hidden units are solved by using statistical model...

This paper is concerned with modelling time series by single hidden layer feedforward neural network models. A coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. Variable selection is carried out using existing techniques. The problem of selecting the number of hidden units...