This paper is designed to validate if the agricultural sector can once again be labeled as an instigator of the late-2000s Great Recession using the early warning models technique. The empirical results indicate that exposure to agribusiness operations does not necessarily enhance a banks’...

In the paper, preliminary results of the analysis of potential use of climate forecast information in designing rainfall index insurance in the southeastern region of the U.S. are reported. Joint distributions of bi-monthly rainfall and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indexes are estimated...

We theoretically examine a farmer’s coverage demand with area and individual insurance plans as either separate or integrated options. The individual and area losses are assumed to be imperfectly and positively correlated. With actuarially fair rates, the farmer will fully insure with the...

The commodity bull cycle of 2006-2008 and subsequent dramatic price decline have been a source of hardship for traditional commodity market participants such as producers and merchant/shippers. The usefulness of futures markets has been called into question, especially given that some market...

This paper investigates the dynamics of sequential decision-making in agricultural futures and options markets using a quantile regression framework. Analysis of trading records of 12 traders suggests that there is great heterogeneity in individual trading behavior. Traders respond differently...

Grain prices have risen sharply since 2005 and 2006 affecting livestock markets by increasing feed prices and leading to significant volatility shocks. The high price levels and magnitude of sustained high volatilities has raised concerns for many sectors of the economy, in particular those with...

A comparative analysis was performed looking at using cash, futures, options, or insurance to manage the price of calves for cow-calf producer. Risk can be reduced with the futures market and with options or LRP insurance. Options and LRP insurance are equivalent in the amount of risk that is...

Hedging effectiveness is the proportion of price risk removed through hedging. Empirical hedging studies typically estimate a set of risk minimizing hedge ratios, estimate the hedging effectiveness statistic, apply the estimated hedge ratios to a second group of data, and examine the robustness...

The first step towards forecasting the price and output of the cattle industry is understanding the dynamics of the livestock production process. This study follows up on the Weimar and Stillman (1990) paper by using data from 1970 to 2005 to estimate the parameters that characterizes the cattle...

Futures prices when combined with a basis forecast provide a reliable way to forecast cash prices. The most popular method of forecasting basis is historical moving averages. Given the recent failure of longer moving averages proposed by previous studies, this research reassesses past...