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-of-sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state level forecasts versus forecasting the … aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically … improves forecasting performance under Root Mean Squared Forecast Error Loss. Based on the in-sample observations we attempt to …
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This paper uses cointegrated time-series methods to evaluate the effect of timber employment on participation in a major poverty program-Aid to Families with Dependent Children-Unemployed Parent (AFDC-UP). The study is conducted for major timber-producing counties in California. It is shown that...
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This paper develops a model of residential water demand under a nonlinear budget constraint. The theoretical model for an individual consumer is adapted to yield an aggregate model that preserves the structure of the individual demand function, and that can be used with aggregate (water district...
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