The purpose of this paper is to explore the factors that are correlated with hours worked in China. A distinguishing feature of the study is that we use representative matched employer and employee data. Hence, in addition to the usual worker characteristics examined in conventional economic...

This paper examines the determinants of working excessive hours, defined as working in excess of 60 hours per week or for more than six consecutive days, in Chinese and Thai supply-chain factories. We use a matched employer-employee dataset collected from 15 Chinese and Thai footwear and...

We develop nonlinear leading indicator models for GDP growth, with the interest rate spread and growth in M2 as leading indicators. Since policy makers are typically interested in whether or not a recession is imminent, we evaluate these models according to their ability to predict the...

In this paper we present a test statistic, which will be used to test for significant differences between generating processes of two time series that may be logically connected. The test statistic is based on the differences between estimated parameters of the autoregressive models which are...

This paper studies the All Ordinaries Index in Australia, and its futures contract known as the Share Price Index. We use a new form of smooth transition model to account for a variety of nonlinearities caused by transaction costs and other market/data imperfections, and given the recent...

This paper studies linear and linear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in OECD countries. The models use the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP, and their success in capturing business cycles gauged by the non-parametric...

This paper studies linear and nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of business cycles in G7 countries. The models use the spread between short-term and long-term interest rates as leading indicators for GDP, and their success in capturing business cycles is gauged by non-parametric...

This study proposes a new approach to the estimation of daily volatility. This approach is different ( in the sense of using all available intraday price data) and unbiased ( in the sense of accounting for the high levels of autocorrelation found in intraday price data).

This paper considers the analysis of cointegrated time series using principal components methods. These methods have the advantage of neither requiring the normalisation imposed by the triangular eror correction model, nor the specification of a finite order vector autoregression.

This paper compares and generalizes some testing procedures for structural change in the context of cointegrated regression models.