An econometric model of poverty incidence is calibrated to 20 household surveys for India's 15 major states spanning 1960-1994. The model builds on past research suggesting that the key determinants of the rate of poverty reduction at state level are agricultural yields, growth of the non-farm...

Looking back 40 years or so, progress against poverty in India has been highly uneven over time and space. It took 20 years for the national poverty rate to fall below - and stay below - its value in the early 1950s. And trend rates of poverty reduction have differed appreciably between states....