Showing 1 - 10 of 29
The impact of parameterisation on the simulation efficiency of Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for two non-Gaussian state space models is examined. Specifically, focus is given to particular forms of the stochastic conditional duration (SCD) model and the stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005581163
superior labour market characteristics, and in particular, their levels of education. A decomposition analysis indicates that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010780701
. We use quantile regression and semi-parametric decomposition methods to identify the savings differential, and to isolate … immigrant and native savings there are fundamental differences in the saving behaviour of the respective groups. Decomposition …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008492293
continuously or with some jumps. This view is widely held in the forecasting literature and under this view, the time series … the sample size T and as slow as the cube root of T. We also provide an asymptotic distribution of the estimator and that … contemporary forecasting methods is compared to ours using a number of macroeconomic data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860411
distribution theory involves cube-root asymptotics and it is used to shed light on forecasting practice. We show that the … conventional forecasting methods do not necessarily produce the best forecasts in our setting. We also propose a new forecasting … strategy, which incorporates our new distribution theory, and apply our forecasting method to numerous macroeconomic data. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860415
decomposing, smoothing and forecasting two-dimensional sparse data. In some ways, ROPES is similar to Ridge Regression, the LASSO … practical method of forecasting mortality rates, as well as a new method for interpolating and extrapolating sparse longitudinal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958945
The disparity in breast cancer mortality rates among white and black US women is widening with higher mortality rates among black women. We apply functional time series models on age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for each group of women, and forecast their mortality curves using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008467330
Realized volatility of stock returns is often decomposed into two distinct components that are attributed to continuous price variation and jumps. This paper proposes a tobit multivariate factor model for the jumps coupled with a standard multivariate factor model for the continuous sample path...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008467332
assumed to be Gaussian, the resulting prediction distribution may have an infinite variance beyond a certain forecasting … approximation causes no serious problems for parameter estimation or for forecasting one or two steps ahead. However, for longer …. The performance of the Gaussian approximation is compared with those of two lognormal models for short-term forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125278
In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125279