Showing 1 - 10 of 29
This paper proposes neural network based measures of predictability in conditional mean, and then uses them to construct nonlinear analogues to autocorrelograms and partial autocorrelograms. In contrast to other measures of nonlinear dependence that rely on nonparametric estimation of densities...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087615
Given that it is quite impractical to use standard model selection criteria in a nonlinear modeling context, the builders of nonlinear models often choose lag length by setting it equal to the lag length chosen for a linear autoregression of the data. This paper studies the performance of this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149065
This paper investigates the effect of aggregation and non-linearity in relation to television rating forecasts. Several linear models for aggregated and disaggregated television viewing have appeared in the literature. The current analysis extends this work using an empirical approach. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149111
continuously or with some jumps. This view is widely held in the forecasting literature and under this view, the time series … contemporary forecasting methods is compared to ours using a number of macroeconomic data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860411
distribution theory involves cube-root asymptotics and it is used to shed light on forecasting practice. We show that the … conventional forecasting methods do not necessarily produce the best forecasts in our setting. We also propose a new forecasting … strategy, which incorporates our new distribution theory, and apply our forecasting method to numerous macroeconomic data. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860415
decomposing, smoothing and forecasting two-dimensional sparse data. In some ways, ROPES is similar to Ridge Regression, the LASSO … practical method of forecasting mortality rates, as well as a new method for interpolating and extrapolating sparse longitudinal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958945
for macroeconomic forecasting to VARs given the recent advances in VARMA modelling methodology and improvements in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087575
the other periods. Croston's method is a widely used procedure for intermittent demand forecasting. However, it is an ad …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087603
It is a common practice to complement a forecasting method such as simple exponential smoothing with a monitoring …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087610
A new class of models for data showing trend and multiplicative seasonality is presented. The models allow the forecast error variance to depend on the trend and/ or the seasonality. It can be shown that each of these models has the same updating equations and forecast functions as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149041