Showing 1 - 10 of 72
price variation and jumps. This paper proposes a tobit multivariate factor model for the jumps coupled with a standard …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008467332
A new approach to inference in state space models is proposed, based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC avoids evaluation of the likelihood function by matching observed summary statistics with statistics computed from data simulated from the true process; exact inference being...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958938
Dynamic jumps in the price and volatility of an asset are modelled using a joint Hawkes process in conjunction with a … integrated volatility and price jumps, to the specified model components; with Bayesian inference conducted using a Markov chain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011141014
In this paper we apply Bayesian methods to estimate a stochastic volatility model using both the prices of the asset and the prices of options written on the asset. Implicit posterior densities for the parameters of the volatility model, for the latent volatilities and for the market price of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005581105
We propose an innovations form of the structural model underlying exponential smoothing that is further augmented by a latent Markov switching process. A particular case of the new model is the local level model with a switching drift, where the switching component describes the change between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005125286
The main objective of this paper is to provide analytical expression for forecast variances that can be used in prediction intervals for the exponential smoothing methods. These expressions are based on state space models with a single source of error that underlie the exponential smoothing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005581136
We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers published in these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005427625
How often do jumps or price discontinuities occur on energy markets? What is the dynamics of the energy market …, by proposing a novel Cumulative Sentiment Index applied to the analysis of the detected jumps in returns. Our findings … confirm previous studies that jumps are the common feature for all energy commodities studied. For some commodities such as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010681076
This paper proposes a new test for simultaneous intraday jumps in a panel of high frequency financial data. We utilize … statistic to detect common large discrete movements (co-jumps). We study the finite sample behavior of our first …-high-low-last price based test identifies more common jumps than the return-based test in this emerging market. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009275516
The object of this paper is to produce distributional forecasts of physical volatility and its associated risk premia using a non-Gaussian, non-linear state space approach. Option and spot market information on the unobserved variance process is captured by using dual 'model-free' variance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008763558