Adaptations of simple exponential smoothing are presented that aim to unify the task of forecasting demand for both slow and fast moving inventories. A feature of the adaptations is that they are designed to ensure that the resulting prediction distributions have only a nonnegative domain. A...

In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real conflicts. The forecasts of experts using unaided judgment were little better than those of...

As promotion of tourism changes preferences, and hence the utility function, the usual comparative static analysis is not appropriate. A comparison of utility levels with, and without, promotion has to be conducted with the same utility function. The choice of the utility function depends on...

The arm’s length principle states that the transfer price between two associated enterprises should be the price that would be paid for similar goods in similar circumstances by unrelated parties dealing at arm’s length with each other. This paper examines the effect of the arm’s length...

This paper analyses the effect of piracy on innovation in the presence of R&D competition with technological and market uncertainty. With a single innovating firm facing technological uncertainty, piracy unambiguously retards innovation. However, with R&D competition where firms face market and...

We develop a framework, extending the conventional duopoly model by replacing the Hotelling line with a simplex in high???dimension spaces, to study the competition and access regulation of multiple networks. We first characterize the competitive equilibrium when the substitutabilities of the...

This paper considers a class of parametric models with nonparametric autoregressive errors. A new test is proposed and studied to deal with the parametric specification of the nonparametric autoregressive errors with either stationarity or nonstationarity. Such a test procedure can initially...

This paper establishes a suite of uniform consistency results for nonparametric kernel density and regression estimators when the time series regressors concerned are nonstationary null-recurrent Markov chains. Under suitable conditions, certain rates of convergence are also obtained for the...

Local linear fitting is a popular nonparametric method in statistical and econometric modelling. Lu and Linton (2007) established the pointwise asymptotic distribution for the local linear estimator of a nonparametric regression function under the condition of near epoch dependence. In this...

This paper treats estimation in a class of new nonlinear threshold autoregressive models with both a stationary and a unit root regime. Existing literature on nonstationary threshold models have basically focused on models where the nonstationarity can be removed by differencing and/or where the...