This article studies a simple, coherent approach for identifying and estimating error correcting vector autoregressive moving average (EC-VARMA) models. Canonical correlation analysis is implemented for both determining the cointegrating rank, using a strongly consistent method, and identifying...

Changes in the unemployment rate can have differing impacts on the labour force participation rate depending on the strength of the added worker effect and the discouraged worker effect. This paper documents the differences in the relationship between the unemployment rate and the labour force...

An empirical assessment shows that Malaysia’s business cycle indicators can be improved. Turning point detection is not impressive, especially for troughs. Lead times are also variable. However, the relationship between the leading and coincident indicators over the entire cycle shows quite...

In reviewing the population policy in 1984, Malaysian government called for a major shift from family planning to family and human resource development to achieve an ultimate population of 70 million by 2100. However, regardless of the government’s initiatives since the 1984, Malaysia’s...

This paper considers the role of language in labour earnings in South Africa over the period 1996 to 1998. Our pooled cross-section comprises of over 160,000 working age adults, and the analysis considers the decision to participate in the labour force, employment prospects and labour earnings....

This paper looks at the connection between internal migration and unemployment in South Africa. We examine whether rural-urban migrants are more likely to be unemployed, in informal sector employment or underemployed than non-migrants. We build on standard economic theory to predict that rates...

In this paper we examine the demand for education among rural Black households in South Africa using nationally representative data from the 1990s. In particular our study focuses on factors affecting schooling decisions at the household level. Our estimation results reveal strong evidence of a...

This paper studies a general class of nonlinear varying coefficient time series models with possible nonstationarity in both the regressors and the varying coefficient components. The model accommodates a cointegrating structure and allows for endo-geneity with contemporaneous correlation among...