This paper considers the analysis of cointegrated time series using principal components methods. These methods have the advantage of neither requiring the normalisation imposed by the triangular eror correction model, nor the specification of a finite order vector autoregression.

This paper investigates cross-country evidence on how capital markets affect business cycle volatilities. In contrast to the large and growing literature of finance and growth, empirical work on the relationship between finance, particularly capital markets, and volatility has been relatively...

This paper investigates the relationships of capital market, severity of economic contraction, and probability of an economic downturn. The finding supports a theoretical prediction that countries with more advanced capital markets would face less severe business cycle output contraction, and a...

This paper investigates the relationships of capital markets, frequency of recession, and fraction of time the economy is in recession. The main finding is that frequency of recession is not robustly linked to measures of capital market development. However, the fraction of time the economy...

We examine the response of real exchange rates to shocks in real exchange rate determinants, a monetary policy shock, and a fiscal policy shock in 30 countries over the period 1970-2008. The country set is divided into 4 groups - European, developed-country, Asian developing-country, and non...

While the primary aim of most Conditional Cash Transfer (or CCT) programs is to increase the level of human capital of children in poor households, there are also potentially large spillover effects associated with such programs. We illustrate this using data from the Familias en Accion (FA)...

We propose a new generic method ROPES (Regularized Optimization for Prediction and Estimation with Sparse data) for decomposing, smoothing and forecasting two-dimensional sparse data. In some ways, ROPES is similar to Ridge Regression, the LASSO, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and...

This paper introduces a novel approach to study the effects of common shocks on panel data models with endogenous explanatory variables when the cross section dimension (N) is large and the time series dimension (T) is fixed: this relies on conditional strong laws of large numbers and...

This paper examines real exchange rate responses to shocks in exchange rate determinants for fourteen Asian developing countries. The analysis is based on a panel structural vector error correction model, and the shocks are identified using sign and zero restrictions. We find that trade...

The objective of this paper is to estimate the impacts of medium and long term participation in microfinance programs. It utilises a new, large and unique panel dataset collected from treatment and control households from 1997 to 2005. The data enables us to identify continuing participants in...