This paper develops a new non-linear model to analyse the business cycle by exploiting the relationship between the asymmetrical behaviour of the cycle and leading indicators. The model proposed is an innovations form of the structural model underlying simple exponential smoothing that is...

A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methodology is developed for estimating the stochastic conditional duration model. The conditional mean of durations between trades is modelled as a latent stochastic process, with the conditional distribution of durations having positive support. The sampling...

This paper demonstrates the application of Bayesian simulation-based estimation to a class of interest rate models known as Affine Term Structure (ATS) models. The technique used is based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, with the discrete observations on yields augmented by additional...

This paper investigates nonparametric estimation of density on [0,1]. The kernel estimator of density on [0,1] has been found to be sensitive to both bandwidth and kernel. This paper proposes a unified Bayesian framework for choosing both the bandwidth and kernel function. In a simulation study,...

This paper aims to investigate a Bayesian sampling approach to parameter estimation in the semiparametric GARCH model with an unknown conditional error density, which we approximate by a mixture of Gaussian densities centered at individual errors and scaled by a common standard deviation. This...

We approximate the error density of a nonparametric regression model by a mixture of Gaussian densities with means being the individual error realizations and variance a constant parameter. We investigate the construction of a likelihood and posterior for bandwidth parameters under this...

In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for estimating hyperbolic diffusion models. The approach is based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method after discretization via the Milstein scheme. Our simulation study shows that the hyperbolic diffusion exhibits many of the stylized facts...

Kernel density estimation is an important technique for understanding the distributional properties of data. Some investigations have found that the estimation of a global bandwidth can be heavily affected by observations in the tail. We propose to categorize data into low- and high-density...

Bandwidth plays an important role in determining the performance of nonparametric estimators, such as the local constant estimator. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to bandwidth estimation for local constant estimators of time-varying coefficients in time series models. We establish...

This paper provides an empirical analysis of a range of alternative single-factor continuous time models for the Australian short-term interest rate. The models are indexed by the level effect parameter for the volatility in the short rate process. The inferential approach adopted is Bayesian,...