This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts using different estimation windows to account for structural change. We let the weights reflect the probability of each time point being the most-recent break point, and we use the reversed ordered Cusum test statistics to...

This paper argues that VAR models with cointegration and common cycles can be usefully viewed as observable factor models. The factors are linear combinations of lagged levels and lagged differences, and as such, these observable factors have potential for forecasting. We illustrate this...

This paper analyses the effect of piracy on innovation in the presence of R&D competition with technological and market uncertainty. With a single innovating firm facing technological uncertainty, piracy unambiguously retards innovation. However, with R&D competition where firms face market and...

Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led to reduced profitability. We summarize the evidence as of 1996 then describe evidence from 12 new...

We show the importance of endogenous oil prices and production in the real business cycle framework. Endogenising these variables improves the model's predictions of business cycle statistics, oil related and non-oil related, relative to a situation where either is exogenous. This result is...

In this article we investigate the theoretical behaviour of finite lag VAR(n) models fitted to time series that in truth come from an infinite order VAR(?) data generating mechanism. We show that overall error can be broken down into two basic components, an estimation error that stems from the...

This paper develops a simple dynamic model to study some of the implications of Cantillon’s insight that new money enters an economy at a specific point and that it takes time for the new money to permeate the economy. It applies a process analysis and uses numerical simulations to map out how...

We develop nonlinear leading indicator models for GDP growth, with the interest rate spread and growth in M2 as leading indicators. Since policy makers are typically interested in whether or not a recession is imminent, we evaluate these models according to their ability to predict the...

This paper studies the All Ordinaries Index in Australia, and its futures contract known as the Share Price Index. We use a new form of smooth transition model to account for a variety of nonlinearities caused by transaction costs and other market/data imperfections, and given the recent...

This paper develops a new non-linear model to analyse the business cycle by exploiting the relationship between the asymmetrical behaviour of the cycle and leading indicators. The model proposed is an innovations form of the structural model underlying simple exponential smoothing that is...