This paper investigates how government transfers affect economic growth. Using meta-analysis techniques, we systematically review 24 primary studies with 164 estimates that examine the effect of government transfers on economic growth. After addressing heterogeneity and issues of publication...

This paper studies optimal monetary and fiscal policies in an economy à la Lucas and Stokey (1983) and Lagos and Wright (2005) with multiple cash and credit goods. We show that optimal policies are in general time inconsistent due to insufficient number of instruments to influence future...

We find that perceptions of corruption are positively correlated with left-wing beliefs across 32 Chinese cities, controlling for income, personal characteristics and ideology.

In this paper we explore how the nature of the equilibria changes when the interest income from nominal bond holdings is also taxed in an fully flexible endowment economy. We find that the stability properties of this economy depend on the slope and the intercept of both monetary and fiscal...

Age-sex-specific population forecasts are derived through stochastic population renewal using forecasts of mortality, fertility and net migration. Functional data models with time series coefficients are used to model age-specific mortality and fertility rates. As detailed migration data are...

The global linear trend with autocorrelated disturbances is a surprising omission from the M1 competition. This approach to forecasting is therefore evaluated using the 51 non-seasonal series from the competition. It is contrasted with a fully optimized version of Holts trend corrected...

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers published in these...

Influence diagnostics have become an important tool for statistical analysis since the seminal work by Cook (1986). In this paper we present a curvature-based diagnostic to access local influence of minor perturbations on the modified likelihood displacement in a regression model. Using the...

This paper has a focus on non-stationary time series formed from small non-negative integer values which may contain many zeros and may be over-dispersed. It describes a study undertaken to compare various suitable adaptations of the simple exponential smoothing method of forecasting on a...

In this paper we compare two non-stationary time series using non-parametric procedures. Evolutionary spectra are estimated for the two series. Randomization tests are performed on groups of spectral estimates for both related and independent time series. Simul ation studies show that in certain...