This paper examines the linkage of real interest rates of a group of Pacific-Basin countries with a focus on East Asia. We consider monthly real interest rates of the US, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand from 1980 and 2004. The impulse response analysis and half-life estimation are...

This paper develops a model of banking frictions and banking riskiness, the importance of which is highlighted by the recent Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We propose a model-based approach to decompose the effect of a banking riskiness shock into a pure default effect and a risk effect when...

Estimation of the reduced rank regression model requires restrictions be imposed upon the model. Two forms of restrictions are commonly used. Earlier Bayesian work relied on the triangular method of identification which imposes an a priori ordering on the variables in the system, however,...

The basic ideals underlying the Kalman filter are outlined in this paper without direct recourse to the complex formulae normally associated with this method. The novel feature of the paper is its reliance on a new algebraic system based on the first two moments of the multivariate normal...

Statistics is commonly taught as a set of techniques to aid in decision making, by extracting information from data. It is argued here that the underlying purpose, often implicit rather than explicit, of every statistical analysis is to establish a set of probability models which can be used to...

This study examines the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship between the Cambodia’s real exchange rates and real interest differentials. The results of cointegration tests (i.e. Engle-Granger tests, and Johansen’s multivariate tests without and with structural breaks)...

We evaluate the performance of various methods for forecasting tourism demand. The data used include 380 monthly series, 427 quarterly series and 530 yearly series, all supplied to us by tourism bodies or by academics from previous tourism forecasting studies. The forecasting methods implemented...

Age-sex-specific population forecasts are derived through stochastic population renewal using forecasts of mortality, fertility and net migration. Functional data models with time series coefficients are used to model age-specific mortality and fertility rates. As detailed migration data are...

We provide a new approach to automatic business forecasting based on an extended range of exponential smoothing methods. Each method in our taxonomy of exponential smoothing methods can be shown to be equivalent to the forecasts obtained from a state space model. This allows (1) the easy...

Exponential smoothing, often used for sales forecasting in inventory control, has always been rationalized in terms of statistical models that possess errors with constant variances. It is shown in this paper that exponential smoothing remains the appropriate approach under more general...