We show how cubic smoothing splines fitted to univariate time series data can be used to obtain local linear forecasts. Our approach is based on a stochastic state space model which allows the use of a likelihood approach for estimating the smoothing parameter, and which enables easy...

We present an approach to improve forecast accuracy by simultaneously forecasting a group of products that exhibit similar seasonal demand patterns. Better seasonality estimates can be made by using information on all products in a group, and using these improved estimates when forecasting at...

For the last two decades, a key policy objective of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), to which it claims much success, has been the supra-national integration among the region’s financial markets. This paper critically appraises this claim by locating and estimating...

This paper develops a Ricardian model with money to study North-South trade that is mediated by the currency of the North. The model shows that an increase in the supply of Northern money results in inflation being “exported†to the South. The increase in the supply of Northern money...

The Consumer Panel of Australia data collected by the Roy Morgan Research Centre is used to investigate the determinantes of brand choice behavior in the laundry detergent market.

A system of multivariate semiparametric nonlinear time series models is studied with possible dependence structures and nonstationarities in the parametric and nonparametric components. The parametric regressors may be endogenous while the nonparametric regressors are assumed to be strictly...

Despite its economic success, India has made little progress towards meeting its Millennium Development Goal targets of reducing undernourishment, particularly among children. Using nationally representative data, our analysis finds evidence of an improvement in the anthropometric measures of...

At present, there appears to be no qualitative dependent model that can simultaneously account for data sets in which the variable of interest is potentially ordered but also has strong heterogeneity of the observed outcomes. This heterogeneity of particular outcomes, inherently attracts...

In this paper we examine the demand for education among rural Black households in South Africa using nationally representative data from the 1990s. In particular our study focuses on factors affecting schooling decisions at the household level. Our estimation results reveal strong evidence of a...

Modelling the incidence of self-employment has traditionally proved problematic. Whilst the individual supply side characteristics of the self-employed are well documented, the literature has largely neglected (or misspecified) demand side aspects. In this paper we present results from an...