Showing 1 - 10 of 26
continuously or with some jumps. This view is widely held in the forecasting literature and under this view, the time series … contemporary forecasting methods is compared to ours using a number of macroeconomic data. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860411
distribution theory involves cube-root asymptotics and it is used to shed light on forecasting practice. We show that the … conventional forecasting methods do not necessarily produce the best forecasts in our setting. We also propose a new forecasting … strategy, which incorporates our new distribution theory, and apply our forecasting method to numerous macroeconomic data. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010860415
decomposing, smoothing and forecasting two-dimensional sparse data. In some ways, ROPES is similar to Ridge Regression, the LASSO … practical method of forecasting mortality rates, as well as a new method for interpolating and extrapolating sparse longitudinal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010958945
for macroeconomic forecasting to VARs given the recent advances in VARMA modelling methodology and improvements in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087575
the other periods. Croston's method is a widely used procedure for intermittent demand forecasting. However, it is an ad …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087603
It is a common practice to complement a forecasting method such as simple exponential smoothing with a monitoring …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005087610
A new class of models for data showing trend and multiplicative seasonality is presented. The models allow the forecast error variance to depend on the trend and/ or the seasonality. It can be shown that each of these models has the same updating equations and forecast functions as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149041
forecasting error (MISFE) and accounts for 99.3% of variation around the mean mortality curve. 20 year forecast suggest a … greatest decline in older women. We illustrate the utility of a new modelling and forecasting approach to model breast cancer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149044
Despite the commonly held belief that aggregate data display short-run comovement, there has been little discussion about the econometric consequences of this feature of the data. We use exhaustive Monte-Carlo simulations to investigate the importance of restrictions implied by common-cyclical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149052
-term forecasting and also produce sensible long-term forecasts. The forecasts are compared with the official Australian government …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005149064