This paper considers whether the Phillips curve can explain the recent behavior of inflation in the United States. Standard formulations of the model predict that the ongoing large shortfall in economic activity relative to full employment should have led to deflation over the past several...

This paper argues that individuals may rationally weight price increases for food and energy products differently from their expenditure shares when forming expectations about price inflation. We develop a simple dynamic model of the economy with gradual price adjustment in the "core" (non-food,...

We test for fractional dynamics in CPI-based inflation rates for twenty-seven countries and WPI-based inflation rates for twenty-two countries. The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using semiparametric and approximate maximum likelihood methods. Significant evidence of fractional...

We review the Stata statistical package and evaluate its suitability for applied research.

This paper models the tradeoff, perceived by central banks and other public actors, between providing the public with useful information and the risk of overwhelming it with excessive communication. An information authority chooses how many signals to provide regarding an aggregate state and...

This paper presents a model in which some goods trade in "customer markets." In these markets, advertising plays a critical role in facilitating long-lived relationships. We estimate both policy and non-policy parameters of the model (which includes New-Keynesian frictions) on U.S. data,...

This paper builds upon the analysis of Orphanides and Wilcox (1996) to evaluate optimal anti-inflation policy under a broader set of circumstances than considered in their work. We consider a monetary authority with two instruments--the funds rate and the discount rate--with the distinction that...

I construct an economy with heterogeneous agents that mimics the time-series behavior of the earnings distribution in the United States from 1963 to 2003. Agents face aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks and accumulate real and financial assets. I estimate the shocks that drive the model using...