I characterize cyclical fluctuations in the cross-sectional dispersion of firm-level productivity in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Using the estimated dispersion, or "risk," stochastic process as an input to a baseline DSGE financial accelerator model, I assess how well the model reproduces...

This paper develops an affine model of the term structure of interest rates in which bond yields are driven by observable and unobservable macroeconomic factors. It imposes restrictions to identify the effects of monetary policy and other structural disturbances on output, inflation, and...

This paper studies the impact of credit rating agency (CRA) downgrade announcements on the value of the Euro and the yields of French, Italian, German and Spanish long-term sovereign bonds during the culmination of the Eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012. The employed GARCH models show that CRA...

This paper shows that the recent literature that tests for a long-run Fisher relationship using cointegration analysis is seriously flawed. Cointegration analysis assumes that the variables in question are I(1) or I(d) with the same d. Using monthly post-war U.S. data from 1959-1997, we show...

A number of previous studies have questioned the dominant role of Germany within the EMS. These conclusions are often based on empirical findings that interest rates of member countries of the EMS are not affected by German interest rates, even in the long run. In this study we establish...

The macroeconomic evidence on the short-term impact of exchange rates on exports and prices is notoriously weak. In this paper I examine the micro-foundations of this disconnect by looking at firms' export and price setting decisions in response to fluctuations in exchange rates and credit...

I construct an economy with heterogeneous agents that mimics the time-series behavior of the earnings distribution in the United States from 1963 to 2003. Agents face aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks and accumulate real and financial assets. I estimate the shocks that drive the model using...

I develop a general equilibrium model with sticky prices, credit constraints, nominal loans and asset (house) prices. Changes in house prices modify agents' borrowing capacity through collateral value; changes in nominal prices affect real repayments through debt deflation. Monetary shocks move...

We study housing and debt in a quantitative general equilibrium model. In the cross-section, the model matches the wealth distribution, the age profiles of homeownership and mortgage debt, and the frequency of housing adjustment. In the time-series, the model matches the procyclicality and...

Using U.S. data and Bayesian methods, we quantify the contribution of the housing market to business fluctuations. The estimated model, which contains nominal and real rigidities and collateral constraints, is used to address two questions. First, what shocks drive the housing market? We find...