We derive an approximation to the expectation of the likelihood tatio test for cointegration in the vector autoregressive model. The expression depends on moments of functions of random walk, which are tabulated by simulation, and functions of the parameters, which are estimated. From this...

Calls for tenders are the natural devices to inform bidders, thus to enlarge the pool of potential participants. We exploit discontinuities generated by the Italian Law on tender's publicity to identify the effect of enlarging the pool of potential participants on competition in public...

Using the budget of Italian Survey by Banca d'Italia we analyse the sectoral choce of the Italian workers among the private, public and self-employed options. The choice is modelled using a trivariate probit which allows one to release the IIA hypothesis, imposed by the multinomial logit model....

While politically attractive in order to generate tax revenues, the effects of a financial transaction tax (FTT) are scientifically disputed, not the least because seemingly small details of its implementation may matter a lot. In this paper, we provide experimental evidence on the different...

In this paper we eamine the characteristics of market opening news and its impact on the estimated coefficients of the conditional volatility model of the GARCH class.

In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis a Markov regime switching (MS) property can be exploited to identify shocks if the reduced form error covariance matrix varies across regimes. Unfortunately, these shocks may not have a meaningful structural economic interpretation. It is...

Many contemporaneously aggregated variables have stochasticaggregation weights. We compare different forecasts for such variables including univariate forecasts of the aggregate, a multivariate forecast of the aggregate that uses information from the disaggregate components, a forecast which...

This paper relies on wavelet multiresolution analysis to capture the dependence structure of currency markets and reveal the complex dynamics across different timescales. It investigates the nature and direction of causal relationships among the most widely traded currencies denoted relative to...

Recent economic developments have shown the importance of spillover and contagion effects in financial markets. Such effects are not limited to relations between the levels of financial variables but also impact on their volatility. I investigate Granger causality in conditional mean and...

Spillover and contagion effects have gained significant interest in the recent years of financial crisis. Attention has not only been directed to relations between returns of financial variables, but to spillovers in risk as well. I use the family of Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH models...