A test for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process with a possible shift and broken linear trend is proposed. The break point is assumed to be known. The setup is a VAR process for cointegrated variables. The tests are not likelihood ratio tests but the deterministic...

A test for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process with a possible shift and broken linear trend is proposed. The break point is assumed to be known. The setup is a VAR process for cointegrated variables. The tests are not likelihood ratio tests but the deterministic...

The rapid rise of Chinese exports over the past two decades has raised concerns for manufacturing employment in high-income countries. Spill-overs beyond manufacturing are an important issue given the large size of the non-traded sector in modern economies and household imperfect spatial...

Sometimes forecasts of the original variable are of interest although a variable appears in logarithms (logs) in a system of time series. In that case converting the forecast for the log of the variable to a naive forecast of the original variable by simply applying the exponential...

We investigate autoregressive approximations of multiple frequency I(1) processes, of which I(1) processes are a special class. The underlying data generating process is assumed to allow for an infinite order autoregressive representation where the coefficients of the Wold representation of the...

The ECB formulates its policy relying on two-pillars: the monetary pillar and alternative models of inflation. The two-pillars strategy has been seriously criticized and there is a chance that it will be reconsidered at some point in the future. This paper elaborates on this possibility,...