In this paper we examine some of the issues which will arise if the European Central Bank adopts "direct inflation" targeting after the adoption of the single currency in Europe. One issue is how big the deviations in national inflation rates form the European average might be. Another is the...

In this paper we study the issue of economic integration in Poland between 1924 and 1937 by means of a threshold cointegration analysis of the law of one price. We find that the interwar economy can be regarded as integrated but with obvious restrictions which refer to the existence of relevant...

A fresh interpretaion is provided of the influential finding that the markup of prices over marginal costs is counter-cyclical. Using Rotemberg and Woodford's data set we argue that the markup is best modelled as a variable that is integrated of order one. A consequence of this finding is that...

Modern theories of inflation incorporate a vertical long-run Phillips curve and are usually estimated using techniques that ignore the non-stationary behaviour of inflation. Consequently, the estimates obtained are imprecise and are unable to distinguish between competing models of inflation and...

An I(2) analysis of inflation and the markup is undertaken for the G7 economies and Australia. We find that the levels of prices and costs are best described as I(2) processes and that except for Japan a linear combination of the log levels or prices and costs cointegrate to the markup that is...

This paper considers whether the Euro-area economies have become more competitive since the introduction of the Euro and the implementation of the Lisbon strategy. Using a measure of the markup as a proxy for competition we show that while the markup has varied considerably over the past 25...

We study the interplay between competition and trust as efficiency-enhancing mechanims in the private provision of money. With commitment, trust is automatically achieved and competition ensures efficiency. Without commitment, competition plays no role. Trust does play a role but requires a...

We characterize the optimal sequential choice of monetary policy in economies with either nominal or indexed debt. In a model where nominal debt is the only source of time inconsistency, the Markov-perfect equilibrium policy implies the progressive depletion of the outstanding stock of debt,...

We analyze the impact of electronic money competition on policy outcomes. We consider di®erent assumptions regarding the objectives of the central bank and its ability to commit to future policies. Electronic money competition can discipline a revenue maximizing government and result in lower...

This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates, including those provided by the IMF, OECD and EC and a set of model based measures. A genuine real-time data set is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available...