In this paper we propose a new GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model allowing for conditional skewness. The model is based on the so-called z distribution capable of modeling moderate skewness and kurtosis typically encountered in stock return series. The need to allow for skewness can also be readily...

This paper is concerned with univariate noncausal autoregressive models and their potential usefulness in economic applications. We argue that noncausal autoregressive models are especially well suited for modeling expectations. Unlike conventional causal autoregressive models, they explicitly...

Forecasts of the realized volatility of the exchange rate returns of the Euro against the U.S. Dollar obtained directly and through decomposition are compared. Decomposing the realized volatility into its continuous sample path and jump components and modeling and forecasting them separately...

In structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models identifying restrictions for shocks and impulse responses are usually derived from economic theory or institutional constraints. Sometimes the restrictions are insufficient for identifying all shocks and impulse responses. In this paper it is...

The role of expectations for economic fluctuations has received considerable attention in recent business cycle analysis. We exploit Markov regime switching models to identify shocks in cointegrated structural vector autoregressions and investigate different identification schemes for bivariate...

We argue that a transaction tax is likely to amplify, not dampen, volatility in the foreign exchange markets. Our argument stems from the decentralized trading practice and the presumable discrepancy between 'informed' and 'uninformed' traders' valuations. Since informed 'traders' valuations are...

A central issue of monetary policy analysis is the specification of monetary policy shocks. In a structural vector autoregressive setting there has been some controversy about which restrictions to use for identifying the shocks because standard theories do not provide enough information to...

A multiplicative error model with time-varying parameters and an error term following a mixture of gamma distributions is introduced. The model is fitted to the daily realized volatility series of Deutschemark/Dollar and Yen/Dollar returns and is shown to capture the conditional distribution of...

It is argued that in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) analysis a Markov regime switching (MS) property can be exploited to identify shocks if the reduced form error covariance matrix varies across regimes. The model setup is formulated and discussed and it is shown how it can be used to...

Different identification schemes for monetary policy shocks have been proposed in the literature. They typically specify just-identifying restrictions in a standard structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework. Thus, in this framework the different schemes cannot be checked against the data...