Showing 1 - 10 of 112
The study evaluates the forecasting ability of models of South Africa’s real fixed business nonresidential investment … spending growth over the recent 2003:1–2011:4 out-of-sample period. The forecasting models are based on the Accelerator …, Stock Price and Return Predictors models appear more important in forecasting the behaviour of South Africa’s business …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010691506
benchmarks (naive and autoregressive models) in forecasting real US house price over the annual out-of-sample period of 1859 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011149761
Information on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) does matter in predicting oil returns especially when accounting for omitted nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables via a time-varying coefficient approach. In this work, we compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011214021
forecasting gains are not significant relative to higher-order AR and nonlinear models, though simple benchmarks like the RW and … AR(1) models are statistically outperformed. Overall, we show that in terms of forecasting the US CPI, accounting for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011196639
the random walk model, suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009370795
20 bivariate regression models, are used in order to capture the influence of fundamentals in forecasting residential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011149763
equilibria in response to shocks and the model specification is superior in forecasting performance out of sample to alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005039674
generate recursive forecasts over 2000Q1-2011Q4. The hybrid DSGE performs extremely well in forecasting inflation variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010754110
forecasting the metical-rand exchange rate, both in terms of out-of-sample forecasting and predicting turning points. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005773184
Using forecasts of the inflation rate in South Africa, we study the rationality of forecasts and the shape of forecasters’ loss function. When we study micro-level data of individual forecasts, we find mixed evidence of an asymmetric loss function, suggesting that inflation forecasters are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011196001